Champions League Insights: Premier League to PSG Minus Mbappé.

The quarterfinals of the Champions League and Europa League matches dashed many English hopes and narratives. Manchester City’s dreams of a “Double Treble” vanished with Antonio Rüdiger’s decisive penalty and a second knockout loss to Real Madrid in three years. Liverpool’s aspirations of giving Jurgen Klopp a memorable send-off with a unique treble—the League Cup, Europa League, and Premier League—were dashed when their attempted comeback against Atalanta quickly fizzled out.

Although Arsenal’s ongoing revival continues, their hopes of reaching the Champions League semifinals after 15 years crumbled in Munich, a familiar graveyard for their European aspirations in the 21st century. With West Ham also succumbing to Bayer Leverkusen, England’s representation in any competition relied solely on Aston Villa’s comeback victory over Lille in the Europa League, aided by a fortuitous late goal in regulation.

Meanwhile, Barcelona squandered both their lead and composure against PSG, marking the first time in 11 years that Germany’s two biggest clubs found themselves in the Champions League semifinals. Bayer Leverkusen, despite managing eight points from four matches against these heavyweights this season, remains undefeated in the Europa League.

Despite the unpredictable nature of these tournaments, we immediately turn to narratives in the aftermath of intriguing results. Some argue that the Premier League is overrated, while others claim the Bundesliga is underrated. Some insist that PSG had a master plan all along. With a few days to reflect on the events, let’s consider what we truly learned from these remarkable quarterfinal rounds.

While money undoubtedly plays a significant role, other factors are equally important. It’s evident that the Premier League remains the top league in Europe and the world, boasting the highest financial resources, depth, and roster value. Prior to this season, the Premier League had produced seven finalists in the last six Champions Leagues. According to UEFA’s most recent benchmarking report, the combined revenue of 20 Premier League clubs is comparable to that of all 38 clubs in La Liga and the Bundesliga, as well as all 642 clubs in the bottom 50 countries of Europe.

It was somewhat reassuring, however, to observe that a league’s financial supremacy alone doesn’t guarantee success. In the last two seasons, despite the Premier League’s depth, English clubs haven’t achieved significant European triumphs. While Manchester City (Champions League) and West Ham (Europa Conference League) claimed victories in their respective competitions last spring, they were the only English teams even to make it to the semifinals. Chelsea (Champions League) and Manchester United (Europa League) were the only others to advance to the quarterfinals. This season, only two English teams reached the Champions League knockout stages—Newcastle and Manchester United both finished last in their groups—and both were eliminated in the quarterfinals.

Despite the Premier League’s financial superiority, it hasn’t been enough to overcome the unpredictability of knockout tournaments, as evidenced by instances like Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta being outmaneuvered by Bayern’s Thomas Tuchel, similar to Liverpool’s Jurgen Klopp’s experience against Atalanta’s Gian Piero Gasperini. (While I understand Liverpool isn’t likely to hire the 66-year-old to replace Klopp, the thought is intriguing nonetheless.)

Meanwhile, Manchester City seemingly outperformed Real Madrid over two legs, with 45 shots attempted compared to Real Madrid’s 22, and generating 3.5 expected goals while allowing just 2.1. However, they struggled to create high-quality chances and couldn’t overcome Real Madrid’s timely brilliance, ultimately succumbing to defeat in a penalty shootout.

Real Madrid once again proves quality triumphs over quantity.

Two years ago, despite being outshot 24-4, Real Madrid emerged victorious over Liverpool in the Champions League final. While it may seem like luck favors Real Madrid in the Champions League, their success wasn’t solely attributed to fortune. Despite the significant shot deficit, Real Madrid managed to create the most impactful scoring opportunities, ultimately making the decisive impact. As I highlighted at the time, “In football, a single high-value scoring chance can have a disproportionate impact, particularly in knockout matches where teams are evenly matched and the stakes are high. While cumulative expected goals (xG) provide insight over time, it’s the significant changes that matter most in the short term.

Considering this, let’s delve deeper into the dynamics of last week’s lopsided 1-1 draw between Madrid and City.

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